Preview: England v Samoa

There will be a huge familiarity factor when England and Samoa go head-to-head in this crucial World Cup Pool A match at Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes, on Saturday - a game that is billed as the Dance of the Desperates.

The showdown in Nantes was always going to be a decider, to see who would finish in second place behind pool favourites South Africa. However, there is added spice to the encounter, following Tonga's 19-15 shock win over Samoa in Montpellier last week - which has thrown the play-off race wide open.

Winless Samoa must now topple the English, preferably with a bonus point, to have any hope of qualifying second. Samoa will then hope that Tonga fail to get any points against South Africa (a game that takes place a couple of hours earlier in Lens on Saturday), while England must also deny Tonga any points a week later. And Samoa must still overcome the United States next week.

England's scenario is a lot less complicated and they have their destiny in their own hands - not being reliant on other results. They must simply beat Samoa on Saturday and Tonga the following week.

However, before any of those scenarios come into play the two teams first have to negotiate their way past each other in Nantes.

The familiarity of the two sides is not because they meet so often. In fact they have only met four times - twice at World Cup tournaments.

It is the individual players that are very familiar with each other - since they play against and alongside each other in the English Premiership and other European competitions year-after-year.

England number eight Nick Easter says his team's familiarity with a number of the opposition is something they will be hoping to use to their advantage.

"It's going to be quite interesting playing against the Samoans," said Easter.

"We play against a lot of their players week in, week out in the Premiership.

"There's probably about eight or nine players playing for various Premiership clubs so we know them much better, we know the ins and outs of their game."

If you were looking for any evidence of the possible dangers these Samoans can pose to the defending World Cup champions' prospects of staying in the competition, then just refer to the Premiership's statistics for last season.

They may not be the best equipped at set pieces - and England strength - but they are among the most lethal attackers in the game.

Four Samoans featured in the top ten for 'offloads' during the course of the 2006/7 Premiership season.

London Irish's burly midfielder Seilala Mapusua was the most effective in offloading in the tackle and putting team-mates away for the score. He was joined in the top ten by London Wasps flank Daniel Leo in sixth place and another beefy centre in Bath's Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu (playing at fly-half on Saturday) in eighth place on that list.

Samoan coach Michael Jones has indicated that his team will not employ the same dour tactics that saw them fall short against Tonga and may revert to a more familiar expansive game.

"We felt that [conservative game plan] was the best way to play Tonga," Jones said.

"We've beaten them that way before but the Tongans when they're in that mood - and I've never seen them in such a mood - it doesn't matter what game plan you throw at them, they're going to smash you over.

"We did have the right game plan, they just wanted it more, they were hungrier."

And that probably sums up Saturday's game in Nantes as well.

When you peel away the thin layer of veneer that are these statistics and comments, it simply comes down to who executes their game plan the best.

Both teams, in their last performances - England suffered a record 0-36 loss to South Africa and Samoa were beaten by Tonga - looked decidedly off-key.

English head coach Brian Ashton denied that his team failed to turn up (mentally) against South Africa and said they were "committed to the cause".

"Their effort and commitment could not be faulted, but I told them that it was their accuracy and game management which needed to be bettered," Ashton said.

England wing Paul Sackey said the loss to South Africa last week has brought the squad closer together.

"We know what the consequences are if we don't perform," said Sackey.

"Our preparation and training this week has gone really well and I'm quite upbeat about it. As a team we're thriving on this kind of challenge and have become very close because of it.

"This is a pressure situation for us but we're managing to soak it all up. I can't wait to get out there now. I know I have to go out there and do a job so that's what I'm going to do."

Ones to watch:

For England: Every time he steps onto the field the spotlight falls on England fly-half Jonny Wilkinson. It has been so on every rare occasion he takes to the field since he landed that winning drop-goal in the 2003 World Cup Final against Australia. And following last week's dismal showing against South Africa, the return of Wilkinson will ensure his every move is scrutinised and analysed in the minutest detail. However, England do have other key players that must step up to the plate - Olly Barkley at inside centre, Andy Gomarsall at scrum-half, Joe Worsley as the openside flank and Ben Kay at lock. They have important roles to fulfil in the overall game plan.

For Samoa: England will have taken notice of the inclusion of 'the Chiropractor', Brian Lima, at inside centre. His last attempt at a big hit - against Springbok fly-half André Pretorius - went horribly wrong. However, his defensive capabilities, even if some of those hits are illegal and many borderline, are legendary in the world of rugby. But for Samoa to have a realistic chance of winning this one, their tight five - Kane Thompson, Joe Tekori, Census Johnston, Mahonri Schwalger and Kas Lealamanua - will need to stand up to England's powerhouse pack.

Head to head: You can only imagine what will go through England inside centre Olly Barkley's head as he contemplates his showdown with Samoa's centre Brian Lima. Another interesting showdown will be at the breakdown, where Joe Worsley (England) will face Semo Sititi (Samoa).

Previous results:

2005: England won 40-3, London
2003: England won 35-22, Melbourne (RWC)
1995: England won 27-9, London
1995: England won 44-22, Durban (RWC)

Prediction: England have looked decidedly poor, pretenders rather than contenders, even before the tournament kicked off. Against the United States it again showed up and South Africa exploited their weaknesses in a ruthless manner. Samoa, although not on top of their game so far, have the ability to produce that one-off performance that stuns the world. You would expect them to produce it in Nantes. Samoa to knock England out of the World Cup with a win by about 10 points.

The teams:

England: 15 Josh Lewsey, 14 Mark Cueto, 13 Mathew Tait, 12 Olly Barkley, 11 Paul Sackey, 10 Jonny Wilkinson, 9 Andy Gomarsall, 8 Nick Easter, 7 Joe Worsley, 6 Martin Corry, 5 Ben Kay, 4 Simon Shaw, 3 Matt Stevens, 2 George Chuter, 1 Andrew Sheridan.
Replacements: 16 Mark Regan, 17 Perry Freshwater, 18 Steve Borthwick, 19 Lewis Moody, 20 Peter Richards, 21 Andy Farrell, 22 Danny Hipkiss.

Samoa: 15 Loki Crichton, 14 David Lemi, 13 Seilala Mapusua, 12 Brian Lima, 11 Alesana Tuilagi, 10 Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu, 9 Junior Polu, 8 Henry Tuilagi, 7 Semo Sititi (c), 6 Daniel Leo, 5 Kane Thompson, 4 Joe Tekori, 3 Census Johnston, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 1 Kas Lealamanua.

Replacements: 16 Tanielu Fuga, 17 Fosi Pala'amo, 18 Justin Purdie, 19 Alfie Vaeluaga, 20 Steve So'oialo, 21 Jerry Meafou, 22 Lolo Lui.

Date: Saturday, 22 September, 2007
Kick-off: 16:00 (15:00 BST, 14:00 GMT)
Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes
Referee: Alan Lewis
Touch judges: Lyndon Bray, Alain Rolland
Television match official: Bryce Lawrence
Assessor: Ian Scotney

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